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Abstract:
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Fertility preferences are an essential component of family planning evaluation. However, doubts about their validity in Sub-Saharan Africa exist and little methodological assessment has been carried out. This study investigated prospective fertility intentions in terms of their temporal stability, intensity, degree of spousal agreement and association with future childbearing in Northern Malawi. A total of 5,618 married women participated in the three round study. The predicted probability of having a child or becoming pregnant within 36 months was 0.33 when both wife and husband wanted to stop childbearing, 0.47-0.48 when only one spouse wanted to stop and 0.63 when both wanted to continue childbearing. The influence of preferences of husbands and wives on subsequent fertility was equal. Compared with the intention to stop, the intention to postpone childbearing for three or more years was less stable, recorded less spousal agreement and was much less strongly predictive of fertility. |